Txij Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj txog Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2021, lub peev xwm tshiab tau teeb tsa photovoltaic hauv Suav teb yog 34.8GW, nce xyoo ib xyoos ntawm 34.5%.Xav tias yuav luag ib nrab ntawm lub peev xwm nruab rau hauv 2020 yuav tshwm sim rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm tag nrho lub xyoo 2021 yuav qis dua li qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev lag luam.Tuam Tshoj Photovoltaic Kev Lag Luam Association tau txo qis nws qhov kev kwv yees txhua xyoo los ntawm 10GW rau 45-55GW.
Tom qab cov pa roj carbon ncov xyoo 2030 thiab lub hom phiaj ntawm carbon neutrality nyob rau hauv 2060 tau muab tso rau pem hauv ntej, txhua qhov chaw ntawm lub neej feem ntau ntseeg hais tias kev lag luam photovoltaic yuav coj mus rau hauv lub keeb kwm golden kev loj hlob voj voog, tab sis tus nqi nce thoob plaws hauv 2021 tau tsim ib qho kev lag luam huab cua.
Los ntawm sab saum toj mus rau hauv qab, cov saw hlau kev lag luam photovoltaic yog kwv yees muab faib ua plaub qhov kev sib txuas: cov khoom siv silicon, silicon wafers, hlwb thiab modules, ntxiv rau qhov chaw nres tsheb fais fab, tag nrho tsib qhov txuas.
Tom qab pib xyoo 2021, tus nqi ntawm silicon wafers, cell conduction, superimposed iav, EVA zaj duab xis, backplane, thav duab thiab lwm yam khoom pab yuav nce.Tus nqi module raug thawb rov qab mus rau 2 yuan / W peb xyoos dhau los hauv lub xyoo, thiab nws yuav yog 1.57 xyoo 2020. Yuan / W.Hauv kaum xyoo dhau los lossis yog li ntawd, cov nqi ntawm cov khoom lag luam tau ua raws li qhov tsis txaus ntseeg qis qis, thiab tus nqi thim rov qab hauv 2021 tau txwv tsis pub muaj kev txaus siab rau nruab cov chaw nres tsheb hauv qab.
Nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej, txoj kev loj hlob tsis sib xws ntawm ntau yam kev sib txuas hauv kev lag luam photovoltaic saw yuav txuas ntxiv mus.Ua kom muaj kev ruaj ntseg ntawm cov saw hlau yog qhov teeb meem tseem ceeb rau txhua lub tuam txhab.Tus nqi hloov pauv yuav ua rau txo qis kev ua raws cai thiab ua rau lub koob npe nrov ntawm kev lag luam.
Raws li qhov kev cia siab poob qis ntawm tus nqi ntawm kev lag luam saw thiab cov peev txheej hauv tsev loj, Lub Koom Haum Kev Lag Luam Photovoltaic tau kwv yees tias lub peev xwm photovoltaic tshiab nyob rau xyoo 2022 zoo li yuav dhau 75GW.Ntawm lawv, qhov kev nyab xeeb ntawm photovoltaic faib yog maj mam ua kom zoo, thiab kev ua lag luam tau pib ua kom zoo.
Kev txhawb nqa los ntawm ob lub hom phiaj ntawm cov pa roj carbon monoxide, peev yog scrambling kom nce photovoltaics, ib puag ncig tshiab ntawm kev nthuav dav tau pib, cov txheej txheem ntau dhau thiab qhov tsis sib xws tseem muaj nyob, thiab tej zaum yuav hnyav dua.Nyob rau hauv kev sib ntaus sib tua ntawm cov tshiab thiab qub players, kev lag luam qauv yog inevitable.
1, Tseem muaj xyoo zoo rau cov khoom siv silicon
Raws li tus nqi nce siab hauv 2021, plaub qhov txuas loj ntawm kev tsim hluav taws xob photovoltaic yuav tsis sib npaug.
Txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Cuaj Hli, cov nqi ntawm cov khoom siv silicon, silicon wafers, lub hnub ci hlwb, thiab cov qauv tau nce 165%, 62.6%, 20%, thiab 10.8%, feem.Tus nqi nce yog vim muaj cov khoom siv silicon siab thiab cov nqi tsis txaus.Cov tuam txhab lag luam uas muaj zog heev silicon wafer kuj tau sau cov nyiaj faib tawm hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo.Nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, cov nyiaj tau poob qis vim qhov kev tso tawm tshiab muaj peev xwm ntau lawm thiab cov khoom siv uas tsis muaj nqi;muaj peev xwm dhau cov nqi ntawm lub roj teeb thiab module xaus Qhov tseem ceeb tsis muaj zog, thiab cov txiaj ntsig tau raug puas tsuaj loj heev.
Nrog rau kev qhib kev sib tw tshiab ntawm kev muaj peev xwm, cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev tsim khoom yuav hloov pauv hauv 2022: Silicon cov ntaub ntawv txuas ntxiv kom tau txais txiaj ntsig, kev sib tw silicon wafer hnyav heev, thiab cov roj teeb thiab cov txiaj ntsig tau xav tias yuav rov qab los.
Xyoo tom ntej, tag nrho cov khoom siv thiab kev thov ntawm cov khoom siv silicon yuav nyob twj ywm nruj, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab yuav qis qis, tab sis qhov txuas no tseem yuav muaj txiaj ntsig ntau dua.Xyoo 2021, tag nrho cov khoom siv ntawm 580,000 tons ntawm cov khoom siv silicon yog qhov sib tw rau qhov kev thov rau kev teeb tsa davhlau ya nyob twg;Txawm li cas los xij, piv nrog cov silicon wafer kawg nrog lub peev xwm ntau dua 300 GW, nws tsis txaus, ua rau muaj qhov tshwm sim ntawm rushing, hoarding, thiab tsav tsheb nce nqi hauv khw.
Txawm hais tias cov txiaj ntsig siab ntawm cov ntaub ntawv silicon hauv xyoo 2021 tau ua rau kev nthuav dav ntau lawm, vim muaj kev nkag siab ntau thiab kev nthuav dav ntau lawm, qhov sib txawv ntawm lub peev xwm ntau lawm nrog silicon wafers xyoo tom ntej tseem yuav pom tseeb.
Thaum kawg ntawm 2022, lub peev xwm ntawm polysilicon hauv tsev yuav yog 850,000 tons / xyoo.Ua tsaug rau cov peev txheej tsim tawm txawv teb chaws, nws tuaj yeem ua tau raws li qhov xav tau ntawm 230GW.Thaum kawg ntawm 2022, tsuas yog Top5 silicon wafer tuam txhab uas muag yuav ntxiv txog 100GW ntawm lub peev xwm tshiab, thiab tag nrho cov peev txheej ntawm silicon wafers yuav nyob ze rau 500GW.
Muab rau hauv tus account tsis paub meej yam xws li lub zog ntawm lub peev xwm tso tawm, dual lub zog noj cov ntsuas ntsuas, thiab overhals, tshiab silicon muaj peev xwm yuav raug txwv nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2022, superimposed ntawm nruj downstream thov, thiab nruj nreem sib npaug cov khoom thiab thov.Kev xa khoom tensions nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yuav txo tau zoo.
Hais txog tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv silicon, thawj ib nrab ntawm 2022 yuav poob qis tsis tu ncua, thiab kev poob qis yuav nrawm dua nyob rau ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo.Tus nqi txhua xyoo yuav yog 150,000-200,000 yuan / tuj.
Txawm hais tias tus nqi no tau poob los ntawm 2021, nws tseem yog qhov siab kawg hauv keeb kwm, thiab kev siv peev txheej thiab cov txiaj ntsig ntawm cov tuam txhab ua lag luam tseem yuav nyob twj ywm siab.
Txhawb nqa los ntawm tus nqi, yuav luag tag nrho cov khoom siv hauv tsev silicon twb tau pov tseg cov phiaj xwm los nthuav lawv cov khoom.Feem ntau hais lus, lub voj voog ntawm cov khoom siv silicon yog kwv yees li 18 lub hlis, qhov kev tso tawm ntawm lub peev xwm ntau lawm qeeb, qhov yooj yim ntawm kev tsim muaj peev xwm kuj me me, thiab cov nqi pib thiab kaw yog siab.Thaum lub davhlau ya nyob twg pib kho, cov khoom siv silicon txuas yuav poob rau hauv lub xeev passive.
Lub sijhawm luv luv ntawm cov khoom siv silicon txuas ntxiv nruj, thiab cov peev txheej tsim tawm yuav txuas ntxiv tso tawm hauv 2-3 xyoos tom ntej, thiab cov khoom siv yuav dhau qhov kev xav tau hauv nruab nrab thiab ntev.
Tam sim no, lub peev xwm tsim tau tshaj tawm los ntawm cov tuam txhab silicon tau tshaj 3 lab tons, uas tuaj yeem ua tau raws li qhov xav tau ntawm 1,200GW.Xav txog lub peev xwm loj hauv kev tsim kho, hnub zoo rau cov tuam txhab silicon zoo li tsuas yog 2022.
2, Lub sijhawm ntawm cov txiaj ntsig zoo silicon wafers dhau lawm
Xyoo 2022, ntu silicon wafer yuav saj cov txiv hmab txiv ntoo iab ntawm kev nthuav dav ntau lawm thiab dhau los ua ntu kev sib tw tshaj plaws.Cov txiaj ntsig thiab kev lag luam kev lag luam yuav poob qis, thiab nws yuav twv yuav raug nqi mus rau tsib xyoos kev khwv tau nyiaj ntau.
Txhawb nqa los ntawm ob lub hom phiaj ntawm cov pa roj carbon monoxide, cov txiaj ntsig siab, qis-kawg silicon wafer ntu yog nyiam dua los ntawm peev.Cov txiaj ntsig ntau dhau maj mam ploj mus nrog kev nthuav dav ntawm cov peev txheej ntau lawm, thiab tus nqi nce ntawm cov khoom siv silicon nrawm nrawm ntawm kev yaig ntawm silicon wafer profits.Nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm 2022, nrog kev tso tawm ntawm tshiab silicon cov ntaub ntawv muaj peev xwm ntau lawm, tus nqi tsov rog yuav tshwm sim ntawm silicon wafer kawg.Los ntawm qhov ntawd, cov txiaj ntsig yuav raug nyem heev, thiab qee qhov thib ob thiab thib peb-kab kev tsim muaj peev xwm yuav thim tawm ntawm kev ua lag luam.
Nrog rau kev hu rov qab ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob sab saud thiab cov nqi wafer, thiab kev txhawb nqa ntawm cov kev xav tau qis qis rau lub peev xwm txhim kho, cov txiaj ntsig ntawm lub hnub ci thiab cov khoom siv hauv xyoo 2022 yuav raug kho, thiab yuav tsis tas yuav raug kev txom nyem los ntawm kev sib cais.
3 、 Kev tsim hluav taws xob photovoltaic yuav tsim qhov kev sib tw tshiab
Raws li cov lus qhia saum toj no, qhov mob siab tshaj plaws ntawm kev lag luam photovoltaic saw hauv xyoo 2022 yog qhov loj tshaj ntawm silicon wafers, ntawm cov tuam txhab tshwj xeeb silicon wafer yog cov feem ntau;cov zoo siab tshaj plaws tseem yog cov tuam txhab khoom siv silicone, thiab cov thawj coj yuav tau txais txiaj ntsig ntau tshaj plaws.
Tam sim no, lub peev xwm nyiaj txiag ntawm cov tuam txhab photovoltaic tau txhim kho zoo heev, tab sis cov kev lag luam sai sai tau ua rau cov khoom lag luam poob qis.Nyob rau hauv cov ntsiab lus no, ntsug kev koom ua ke yog ob-edged ntaj, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv ob qho kev sib txuas uas cov roj teeb thiab cov ntaub ntawv silicon yog over-invested.Kev sib koom tes yog txoj hauv kev zoo.
Nrog rau kev txhim kho kev lag luam cov txiaj ntsig thiab kev nkag mus ntawm cov neeg ua si tshiab, kev sib tw toj roob hauv pes ntawm kev lag luam photovoltaic hauv 2022 tseem yuav muaj qhov sib txawv loj.
Kev txhawb nqa los ntawm ob lub hom phiaj ntawm cov pa roj carbon monoxide, ntau thiab ntau tus neeg tuaj tshiab tau nqis peev hauv kev tsim hluav taws xob photovoltaic, uas coj cov teeb meem loj rau cov tuam txhab photovoltaic ib txwm muaj thiab yuav ua rau muaj kev hloov pauv tseem ceeb hauv cov qauv kev lag luam.
Qhov no yog thawj zaug hauv keeb kwm uas hla ciam teb peev tau nkag mus rau kev tsim hluav taws xob photovoltaic ntawm cov nplai loj.Cov neeg nkag tshiab yeej ib txwm muaj qhov txiaj ntsig pib lig, thiab cov neeg ua si qub uas tsis muaj kev sib tw tseem ceeb yuav raug tshem tawm yooj yim los ntawm cov neeg tuaj tshiab nrog kev nplua nuj.
4 、 Fais fab chaw nres tsheb tsis yog lub luag haujlwm txhawb nqa ntxiv lawm
Qhov chaw nres tsheb fais fab yog qhov txuas hauv qab ntawm photovoltaic.Xyoo 2022, lub chaw nres tsheb fais fab tau teeb tsa lub peev xwm kuj tseem yuav qhia cov yam ntxwv tshiab.
Photovoltaic fais fab nroj tsuag tuaj yeem faib ua ob hom: centralized thiab faib.Cov tom kawg yog subdivided rau hauv kev lag luam thiab kev lag luam thiab kev siv hauv tsev.Tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev txhawb nqa ntawm txoj cai thiab txoj cai ntawm kev pab nyiaj 3 xees ib kilowatt-teev ntawm hluav taws xob, cov neeg siv lub peev xwm tau nce siab;thaum lub hauv paus nruab nrab lub peev xwm tau poob qis vim yog tus nqi nce, qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev faib cov peev txheej hauv 2021 yuav ntaus cov ntaub ntawv siab, thiab qhov feem pua ntawm tag nrho cov peev txheej yuav raug nce ntxiv.Super centralized thawj zaug hauv keeb kwm.
Txij thaum Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj mus txog Lub Kaum Hli 2021, kev faib khoom muaj peev xwm yog 19GW, suav txog li 65% ntawm tag nrho cov peev txheej nruab rau tib lub sijhawm, ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev tau nce 106% xyoo-rau-xyoo rau 13.6GW, uas yog lub hauv paus tseem ceeb ntawm tshiab ntsia muaj peev xwm.
Rau lub sijhawm ntev, kev lag luam photovoltaic faib tau tsim los ntawm cov tuam txhab ntiag tug vim tias nws cov fragmentation thiab me me.Lub peev xwm txhim kho lub peev xwm ntawm kev xa tawm photovoltaic hauv lub tebchaws tshaj 500GW.Txawm li cas los xij, vim tsis muaj kev nkag siab zoo ntawm cov cai los ntawm qee lub nroog thiab cov tuam txhab lag luam thiab tsis muaj kev npaj tag nrho, kev tsis sib haum xeeb tau tshwm sim hauv kev ua haujlwm tiag tiag.Raws li kev txheeb cais los ntawm Tuam Tshoj Photovoltaic Kev Lag Luam Association, qhov ntsuas ntawm cov phiaj xwm loj hauv paus tag nrho ntau dua 60GW tau tshaj tawm hauv Suav teb, thiab tag nrho cov kev xa tawm ntawm photovoltaic fais fab nroj tsuag hauv 19 lub xeev (cov cheeb tsam thiab cov nroog) yog li 89.28 GW.
Raws li qhov no, superimposing downward expectations ntawm tus nqi ntawm kev lag luam saw, Tuam Tshoj Photovoltaic Industry Association kwv yees hais tias cov tshiab ntsia photovoltaic muaj peev xwm nyob rau hauv 2022 yuav ntau tshaj 75GW.
Post lub sij hawm: Jan-06-2022